A-10 rivals collide, as Flyers visit Billikens

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2009 - St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top two defensive teams in the Atlantic 10 collide at Chaifetz Arena this evening, as the 25th-ranked Dayton Flyers come calling on the Saint Louis Billikens.

Dayton has won two straight games and nine of its last 10 to move to 23-3 on the season, including a 9-2 mark in-conference. The last time the Flyers were on the floor, they posted a 69-63 win over Richmond. With the team's recent success and Xavier's problems of late, Dayton has taken a half-game lead atop the A-10 standings.

The Billikens are in the middle of the pack at 7-5 in league play. Saint Louis has also played well of late, with wins in five of its last six games, including a hard-fought 73-71 decision against Saint Joseph's this week.

Dayton has won five straight meetings to take a 23-18 lead in the series with Saint Louis. These two teams met on January 29th in Dayton, with the Flyers posting a 47-46 victory.

The Flyers are sitting atop the conference standings thanks to stellar play at the defensive end of the floor. The team is limiting foes this year to a mere 59.1 ppg, while opponents have converted a miserable .384 from the field (leads the conference in both categories). The offensive stars are few and far between on the roster, with only Chris Wright and Marcus Johnson making consistent contributions. Wright is the team's top scorer and rebounder, averaging 13.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. Johnson is a close second in the scoring column at 11.6 ppg, but that is where the scoring pool dries up, as the next closest player nets a mere 7.5 ppg. The Flyers were able to limit the Spiders to just 40 percent shooting last weekend and earned a tough win. Wright once again led the charge with a double-double consisting of 17 points and 10 rebounds. Point guard London Warren added 10 points in support, while dishing out six assists.

The Billikens got a balanced scoring effort, with four players finishing in double figures, as they were able to edge out the Hawks this week at Chaifetz Arena. Freshman point guard Kwamain Mitchell hit a career-high five three- pointers and led the team with 17 points. Kevin Lisch added 15 points and six assists to the cause, while Barry Eberhardt and Willie Reed came off the bench to chip in 14 and 11 points, respectively. The Billikens are also known for their defensive tenacity, holding opponents to a mere 60.0 ppg. The offense has been lacking at times in 2008-09, with Saint Louis shooting a bland .431 from the floor, for just 62.5 ppg. Three players are currently averaging double figures, led by Lisch's 14.0 ppg. Tommie Liddell III is next at 12.2 ppg and is the team's top rebounder (5.9 rpg). Mitchell has made an immediate impact this year, with the youngster averaging 10.0 ppg, while pacing the Billikens in assists (94).

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

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"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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