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07/19/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CANADIAN OPEN, St. George's Golf & Country Club, Toronto, Ontario - From one national championship to another, the PGA Tour moves north of the border this week for the Canadian Open.
Despite its position following the British Open, Canada's national championship has still attracted some top-level talent.
Among those making the trip to Toronto are world No. 8 Paul Casey, No. 9 Luke Donald, No. 16 Retief Goosen and No. 19 Sean O'Hair. All four finished in the top 11 at the British Open and Casey played in the final pairing with winner Louis Oosthuizen.
This week's event also offers an opportunity for the top players from the Canadian Tour to play for a bigger purse than they're accustomed to. Six players were awarded spots in the field, including Aaron Goldberg, who captured the tour's Players Cup on Sunday to earn his berth.
Reno-Tahoe Open champion Matt Bettencourt is also scheduled to play at St. George's, as is his runner-up, Bob Heintz.
At last year's Canadian Open, Nathan Green defeated Goosen with a par on the second playoff hole to win his first PGA Tour title. The tournament was pushed to a Monday finish following four days of rain storms that dumped more than four inches of water on the Glen Abbey course.
Green and 2001 winner Scott Verplank are the only champions from the last 10 years of the event who will be in the field this week.
Golf Channel will have coverage from 3-6 p.m. (et) on the first two days, while CBS will broadcast in the same time slot on the weekend.
Next week is the Greenbrier Classic, a new event on the PGA Tour schedule.
CHAMPIONS TOUR
THE SENIOR BRITISH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, Carnoustie Golf Links, Carnoustie, Scotland - This week marks the first of two consecutive majors for the Champions Tour.
At last year's Senior British Open, Loren Roberts hit the fairway and green on three consecutive playoff holes and made par at the third to knock off Mark McNulty to win his 10th Champions Tour title and fourth senior major.
Fred Funk, who set two scoring records during the week, also made the playoff but was eliminated on the first hole when he was the only one who didn't make a birdie.
Roberts captured his second Senior British title in four years. He will be joined in the field this week at Carnoustie by some other recent champions, including three-time winner Tom Watson, Bruce Vaughan and Pete Oakley.
ESPN will have coverage of all four rounds this week beginning at 12 p.m. (et) the first two days, at 2 p.m. on Saturday and 1 p.m. on Sunday.
Next week is the third major of the season, the U.S. Senior Open, which was won by Funk last year.
Tom Lehman won the season's first major, the Senior PGA Championship, in a playoff over Fred Couples and David Frost.
LPGA TOUR
EVIAN MASTERS, Evian Masters Golf Club, Evian-les-Bains, France - Last year, Ai Miyazato captured the Evian Masters for her first victory in four full seasons on the LPGA Tour.
This week, she returns to the site of that win as the No. 1 player in the world.
What a difference a year makes.
Miyazato beat Sophie Gustafson in a playoff last year to finally break through for her long-awaited maiden title. The talented Japanese star has already won four times this season and is currently the top-ranked women's player by a very slim margin over Cristie Kerr.
Outside of the major championships, the Evian Masters might be the next-best draw on tour, so all of the top names in women's golf will be in the field this week.
Among them are all three of the 2010 major champions -- Yani Tseng (Kraft Nabisco Championship), Kerr (LPGA Championship) and Paula Creamer (U.S. Open) -- as well as top draw Michelle Wie and former winner Natalie Gulbis.
Golf Channel will have coverage of all four rounds, including three hours on Saturday and Sunday from 1-4 p.m. (et).
Next week is the final major of the season, the Women's British Open, which was won by Catriona Matthew last year.
EUROPEAN TOUR
SCANDINAVIAN MASTERS, Bro Hof Slott Golf Club (Stadium Course), Stockholm, Sweden - British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen begins his post-St. Andrews schedule at this week's Scandinavian Masters.
The South African is set to lead the field at Bro Hof Slott a week after cruising to a seven-shot victory for his first major championship.
Last year's Scandinavian Masters was won by Ricardo Gonzalez, who closed with a four-under 69 on Sunday to wrap up his fourth career European Tour victory and first since 2004.
Golf Channel will have three hours of coverage of all four rounds beginning at 8:30 a.m. (et) the first two days and at 7:30 a.m. on Saturday and Sunday.
Next week is the Irish Open. Last year, Ireland's Shane Lowry became the third amateur in tour history to win an event when he parred the third playoff hole to defeat Robert Rock. Lowry has since turned pro.
NATIONWIDE TOUR
NATIONWIDE CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL INVITATIONAL, The Ohio State University Golf Club (Scarlet Course), Columbus, Ohio - Coming off a victory at the Chiquita Classic, Tommy Gainey leads the field at this week's Nationwide Children's Hospital Invitational.
Gainey became the first two-time winner in 2010 when he rolled to a three-shot victory Sunday at the TPC River's Bend. He headlines a field that includes 19 of the top 20 players on the tour money list.
At last year's event, Derek Lamely defeated then-amateur Rickie Fowler with a par on the second hole of a playoff to capture his first Nationwide Tour win. Both players are competing on the PGA Tour this season.
Golf Channel will have coverage of all four rounds.
Next week is the Cox Classic, which was won by Rich Barcelo last year.
UNITED STATES GOLF ASSOCIATION
U.S. JUNIOR AMATEUR, Egypt Valley Country Club (Ridge and Valley Courses), Ada, Michigan - Jordan Spieth is defending his title this week at the U.S. Junior Amateur.
Spieth won the stroke-play portion of last year's event at Trump National, then cruised through match play to become the sixth 15-year-old winner in championship history.
He is trying to become the first back-to-back Junior Amateur champion since Tiger Woods won three in a row from 1991-93.
U.S. GIRLS' JUNIOR, The Country Club of North Carolina, Village of Pinehurst, North Carolina - Last year, Amy Anderson was the first stroke-play medalist in five years to win the Girls' Junior.
Anderson rolled to a 6 & 5 victory over decorated USGA player Kimberly Kim in their 36-hole match play final. Neither player is in the field this year.
<< Florida, NCAA looking into possible violations
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Florida has reportedly
informed the NCAA of a possible rules violation involving former football
player Maurkice Pouncey that could wind up costing the Gators their win in the
Sugar B
<< Atlanta's Venters, Cox suspended
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta Braves pitcher Jonny Venters has
been suspended by Major League Baseball for four games and fined an
undisclosed amount for throwing two straight pitches at Milwaukee first
baseman
<< Mathieu upended on first day in Hamburg
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul-Henri Mathieu, who was defeated in
the final of last year's event, was upset by qualifier Pere Riba on the first
day of play at the 2010 Hamburg Open.
Mathieu won the first set handily, 6-1,
<< Report: Florida, NCAA probe violation allegations
GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) -ESPN is reporting that Florida and the NCAA are investigating allegations that former Gators offensive lineman Maurkice Pouncey received $100,000 from a representative of a sports agent before last season ended.Florida athlet
Report: Johnson, Titans come to contract agreement >>
Culver City, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL Network is reporting that
running back Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans have agreed to a deal that
will pay him slightly more than $2 million during the 2010 season.
According to T
Edwards, Keselowski feud showing no signs of letting up >>
Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "Boom boom boom, now. Boom boom boom, now. Boom
boom pow."
I generally don't like using song lyrics to describe a frantic episode in a
NASCAR race or any other motorsports event, but after last Saturday's night
Dushevina moves on in Slovenia >>
Portoroz, Slovenia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sixth-seeded Russian Vera Dushevina was
a first-round winner Monday at the Slovenia Open.
Dushevina dropped the first set but rallied for a 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 victory over
fellow countrywoman Anna Lapushch
Jazz sign Bell >>
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Utah Jazz have signed guard Raja
Bell to a reported three-year contract worth $10 million.
This will be Bell's second stint with Utah after spending two seasons from
2003-05 with the club. He
MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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